Hi there, below you’ll find extra content for The Logic of Risk, my podcast on risk and probability, available on all major platforms.
A new episode is released every week.

Whenever an episode features images, videos, or reading suggestions, you’ll find everything you need right here.

References

• Bruno de Finetti (2017). Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment. Wiley.
• Gerd Gigerenzer (2015). Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions. Penguin Books.
• Richard Jeffrey (2004). Subjective Probability: the Real Thing. Cambridge University Press.
• Frank Ramsey (1926). Truth and Probability. Available here.
• Leonard Savage (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. Dover.
• Nassim N. Taleb (2017). Skin in the game. Penguin Books.

Regarding Bruno de Finetti, I also suggest checking this great website: www.brunodefinetti.it

I think that the simple Wikipedia page on the classical definition of probability is a good starting point for those interested in going deeper into the analysis.

This image shows the triplets, illustrating the hierarchy of harm when the nature of the event is fixed, while allowing severity, distribution, and timing to vary.

It is worth noting that describing HHH as "riskier" than HMH is somewhat of an oversimplification for the sake of clarity. A more precise term might be "worse," though this would require adopting an axiological perspective. For now, however, we will use this terminology for simplicity.



You can find the pdf here.