Ciao! Welcome.

Hi there, below you’ll find extra content for The Logic of Risk, my podcast on risk and probability, available on all major platforms.
A new episode is released every week.

Whenever an episode features images, videos, or reading suggestions, you’ll find everything you need right here.

At this link, thanks to the work and kindness of Wissam Abdel Nour, you can find a dynamic text that evolves with each episode. It's like a little book in progress. :-)

Episodes 15 and 16

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This image summarises the concepts of Episodes 15 and 16, including the example we introduced in Episode 15.

Episodes15-16.001

A pdf copy of the image is here.

References

D. Hoffman (2022). The Case against Reality. Norton & Company.

Episodes 13 and 14

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References

D. Huff, I. Geis (1993). How to Lie with Statistics, Reissue edition. W.W. Norton & Company.

This image summarises the discussion about the sample space, the event space (which is assumed to be a sigma-algebra on the sample space), and the probability measure. I also provide the example we have seen in the podcast (mainly Episode 14).

You can find the pdf here.

Episodes 11 and 12

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References

The Ludwig Wittgenstein Project: https://www.wittgensteinproject.org
J.M. Keynes (1921). Treatise on Probability. MacMillan and Co. Available here.
A.N. Kolmogorov (1950). Foundations of the Theory of Probability. Chelsea Publishing. Available here.
W.C. Salmon (1967). The Foundations of Scientific Inference. University of Pittsburgh Press.

Episodes 9 and 10

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References

Bruno de Finetti (2017). Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment. Wiley.
Gerd Gigerenzer (2015). Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions. Penguin Books.
Richard Jeffrey (2004). Subjective Probability: the Real Thing. Cambridge University Press.
Frank Ramsey (1926). Truth and Probability. Available here.
Leonard Savage (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. Dover.
Nassim N. Taleb (2017). Skin in the game. Penguin Books.

Regarding Bruno de Finetti, I also suggest checking this great website: www.brunodefinetti.it

Episodes 7 and 8

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References

Donald Gillies (2000). Varieties of Propensity. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 51, 807-835. Available here.
Karl Popper (1953). The Propensity Interpretation of Probability. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 10, 25-42. Available here.

Episodes 5 and 6

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References

Donald A. Gillies (1973). An Objective Theory of Probability. Routledge.
John Venn (1888) The Logic of Chance, 3rd edition. Freely available here.
Richard von Mises (1981). Probability, Statistics, and Truth. Dover.

Episode 4

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I think that the simple Wikipedia page on the classical definition of probability is a good starting point for those interested in going deeper into the analysis.

Episode 3

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References

Edwin T. Jaynes (2003). Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. Cambridge University Press.
Nassim N. Taleb (2005). Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets. Random House.

Episode 2

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This image shows the triplets, illustrating the hierarchy of harm when the nature of the event is fixed, while allowing severity, distribution, and timing to vary.

It is worth noting that describing HHH as "riskier" than HMH is somewhat of an oversimplification for the sake of clarity. A more precise term might be "worse," though this would require adopting an axiological perspective. For now, however, we will use this terminology for simplicity.

You can find the pdf here.

Risk is in the subject